I would strongly suggest reading this article by Professor John Lott.
He points out just how much our perceptions are driven by the media. He uses the example of today's economy and how it is repeatedly referred to as in a "recession" (which it is demonstrably not). Going back to the Clinton years he finds that when the economy did go into an actual recession there was little media attention at all paid.
It should be surprising -though it's not- that he found upwards of 40% more articles mentioning "recession" in a period of healthy growth (4.9%) last year than he found in three months of recession leading up to the 2000 election. There is little explanation other than in 2000 Al Gore was running on the Clinton economic record and the media dared not burden him with the truth.
He goes on to quote Ben Stein as saying: “The actual economic conditions are not that bad. I think if we have a recession, if we have a serious recession a great deal will lie at the media’s feet.”
Considering that consumer confidence numbers are at a 16 year low despite the fact that the economy has been far worse several times in the last 16 years, I think he's absolutely right.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
The "Terrible" Economy: A Self-Fulfilling Cliche
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6 comments:
Dream on... With the dollar plumitting each day and much of debt to Japan and China, how can either you or the nutty professor say such a thing? Look at the housing whoas and the credit crunch we're in. Wake up!
Here's how I can say it: A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We haven't had that, hence no recession- at least yet.
If everybody with the answers however, spells as poorly as you then perhaps I've underestimated our predicament.
(plummeting, woes) Keep trying. Yes you can!
Thanks for correcting my mis-spelled word. See, you even believe the worst has yet to come when you said, "at least yet".
The indicators are all out there:
1. Declining dollar
2. Very low interest rates
3. Declining stock market
4. Inflated engergy prices
5. An economic stimulous package when the budget is in such bad shape.
Even in primary campaigns (hope I spelled it correct)there are many questions about stimulatng the economy artificially. And preventing a recession. I HOPE 1 day that you'll get your head out of the elephant's ass and start thinking for yourself.
My my so gloomy. I'd like to direct you down the page to another article of mine called "How Can You Argue" from February 25th. I think it will address the source of your negativity.
I assure you I'm fully capable of thinking for myself. Were I not it would hardly make sense for me to put my thoughts to the page on a regular basis for everybody to see.
The point of the article was that even though the economy isn't sunny, it would be a whole lot better if people weren't panicking and acting as if the sky was falling. As is pointed out, there was an actual recession going on during the 2000 election, but there was no gloom and doom because Gore was hoping to get elected.
The sky isn't falling, but many economists are saying things are getting worse. You're likely shielded in your compound or your suburb doesn't expose you to the economic conditions which many of us endure. So it probably is easier for you to keep a posetive attitude about the economy, but many of us that are absorbing the symptoms of an economic fallout are angry. Especially when trillions of dollars are spent to murder innocent Iraqi civilians for precious oil. Now what????
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